Final Tour Email

Please indulge me as I offer a last bit of "conventional wisdom" about this year's Tour (apologies to Newsweek.)

Lance Armstrong: UP. Formerly known as arrogant and even vengeful, the States' Official Affiliation with the Tour has redeemed himself in the eyes of most. He raced with savvy and spoke with respect and sophistication, offering apologies to Sastre and daily press conferences. His Astana situation, we're learning, was far from placid, but he held his tongue -- and maybe his legs -- in playing a support role to Contador's victory.

Johan Brunyeel: SIDEWAYS. His rider wins a Maillot Jaune for the ninth time, but he can't shake the conviction that he's following his riders, not the other way around. Contador would have won this Tour if he'd been riding for Agritubel; meanwhile, if this is how it appears when Brunyeel manages competing egos, what does strife look like?

Mark Cavendish: UP. This could have gone sideways, but his mastery of sprints is becoming absolute, and any guys who wins six times, including riding every other racer out of the camera frame on the Champs Elysees, deserves an "up" arrow.

Alberto Contador: SIDEWAYS. This is the best rider we've seen in a generation, maybe two, but his tactics and his post-Tour comments -- not to mention his poor fielding of drug-use suspicion volleyed his way -- may have sullied his reputation. Assuming he stays clean (or unbusted) he'll win many more Grand Tours, but my guess is that while the Spanish will love him, he'll prove unpopular elsewhere, including among his fellow riders.

Drug Testing: SIDEWAYS. Is it a good or bad thing that no one has been busted this year? A look at average speeds up climbs and in time trials would suggest that we have some statistical anomalies at play -- but it's nice not to read headlines about postitive testing every other day.

Hincapie, Hushovd and Voigt. UP. These guys are the fan favorites. They're gutsy riders, getting by on "HTFU"-style riding and seeming almost like regular people. They're built sort-of like us, they don't seem to have inherited Mt. Olympus-rendered VO2 maxes, and they come across as likeable. We find out that Hincapie raced the last few stages with a broken collarbone (including overwhelming Garmin's long early lead-out attempt with one power-pull on the Champs); we see Hushovd teach Cavendish some truly Northern Eurpoean manners with his masterful point-winning solo effort on the Stage 17 climbs; we learn that Voigt is promising to ride next year's Tour within 24 hours of breaking his cheekbone and jaw(!) in a brutal crash (and that he has five kids(!!) and we like these guys.

The Polka-Dot Jersey: DOWN. I say this as an avowed fan of climbing and climbers: this thing's becoming an anachronism. Who believes Pellizotti is this year's Tour's best climber? We all know who that is; Pellizotti might crack the top ten in a drag race from the bottom of Mt. Ventoux to the top. Certainly we need this prize to generate some excitement on the smaller, non-race-ending climbs (especially with this year's route), but it seems a bit silly to call its winner the "Best Climber."

The Schlecks: UP. They may end up being Malone to Contador's Jordan, or (more accurately, perhaps) Sosa to his McGwire, but people love the Schlecks. We love their skinniness, their fraternally mutual support and their awkward, Luxembourgian attempts to become press stars. Should they find some time-trial prowess in the wind tunnel or through other means, they could push Contador. Regardless, fans seem to love them.

The Tour: UP. As I've written, this wasn't my favorite Tour. Yet it provided, again this year, many glorious moments. Riders scrambling, like their contracts depended on it, to close gaps on the windy stages; Voeckler and Haussler taking improbable, audacious attacks all the way to the finish line; David Millar doing his damndest to shake off demons and just once win a Tour stage without suspicion or doubt; the Schlecks never saying "die"; and Cancellara doing his thing time and again -- it's all worth following, and it all makes me an even bigger fan than before.

See you next year.

Mike

Not-Final Tour Update

Indulge me for this interlude, prior to my sending out a final update.

You’ll remember that awhile back I mentioned that I was playing another Tour fantasy game, and that I was doing well. At that point I was in fifth place or so, thinking I had an outside shot at winning the €800 prize.

After that, my primary sprinter, Cavendish, lost the Green Jersey and I faded to around 12^th spot. Not out of the running, I kept up with my daily activations, every night picking nine of my sixteen riders whom I thought would do well the next day. I bounced between 8^th and 12^th for ten days or so.

Heading into the crucial final stages my team rose in the standings – to fifth after Stage 18. Activating riders was typically simple: take the sprinters and some outsiders for the flat stages, and the climbers and Yellow Jersey contenders for the hilly ones. But Stage 19 posed a dilemma: It was hilly, but included no predictably selective climbs, and offered a slightly uphill finish. I grappled with this one, staring at my screen, trying to discern from the profile whether Cavendish would be able to get over the final climb with the main group, and whether he’d be able to compete with Hushovd and others in the final, ascending sprint. I chose some outsiders whom I thought would have a shot at winning in a breakaway, and decided to leave Cavendish out.

You’ll remember that Cavendish won this stage. I missed out on fifteen points.

My team, with Contador, Nibali, Pellizotti and Nibali did quite well in the Mt. Ventoux stage, and despite my lackluster Stage 19 performance, I was sitting in fifth going into the final stage, and before the bonus points were counted for the various jerseys. Fifth place, but over forty points out of the lead, and not thinking I had a shot at winning.

This morning I went online and looked at the standings and saw that I’d climbed to third. I looked at the leader’s points, and then subtracted mine. The difference? Fourteen points – one less than I’d have won by activating Cavendish.

So I ended up in third place! But the prize for second and third place? As they say: a set of steak knives.

Also known as: nothing.

I write all this because it’s actually pretty funny – I’m fortunate to be able to view this with a lot of regret, but also with a light heart – but also because I’m hoping to incur massive amounts of sympathy prior to releasing the final standings for our game. I’m going to conduct an audit of those standings, because I want to be absolutely certain of their accuracy, and then will send them out sometime in the next few days.

Best,

Mike

Stage 20 Update

Today presented bike racing fans with a spectacle to relish -- even those of us for whom this year's Yellow Jersey raced proved less than gratifying.

Mt. Ventoux is an imposingly, famously merciless gray rock, void of the treescapes and snowscapes we see from the helicopter when the Tour passes through the Alps or Pyrenees. And it didn't fail to impose its harshness on the Tour today, as every rider -- even Contador, from the looks of it -- evidently suffered terribly on its slopes. Tony Martin appeared painfully penitent, trying to make up for losing the White Jersey and falling from the high expectations he set for himself early in the Tour. Pellizotti looked immediately regretful for having taken a flyer with about 5K to go. The Andy and Frank Schleck looked like the most frustrated, agonizing pair of brothers since the Karamazovs, even as they pushed their podium rivals Contador and Armstrong, respectively, right to the observation tower at Ventoux's summit. And Wiggins was surely regretting ever leaving the track as he struggled mightily -- and ultimately triumphantly -- to retain his fourth spot in the General Classification.

Which brings us to just why this stage was so exciting to watch: These guys were turning themselves inside out not to win the Tour, or even the stage, but to hold or gain a spot. Armstrong was riding for the pride of appearing on his eigth Tour podium; Wiggins and Frank Schleck were riding just to hold off one another and, possibly, to unseat Armstrong. Kreuziger rode to satisfy some very high, early and mostly unmet expectations, and Andy Schleck was riding mostly for...brother Frank. No one today was dreaming of winning the Tour, unless Contador was feeling so secure in his spot that he was able to lose his head for a few minutes in the reverie that will be fulfilled tomorrow.

And as to Contador: for all my carping about the suspicious nature of his wins, I sure enjoy watching him ride a bike. He's not smooth, but he's not gangly either; to put it tritely, he comes as close to truly dancing on the pedals as anyone in the peloton today. And regardless of how he's achieved this status, he's arguably the best bike racer we've seen in generations: today Armstrong stated that had the Spaniard been in his prime in the years of the seven Tour wins, things might have turned out differently.

Almost every aspect of this Tour is thus sewn up: Contador in Yellow; Andy and Armstrong on the podium with him; Pellizotti in Polka-Dots; Andy in White; and...probably Hushovd in Green. Remaining to be decided are the stage win on the Champs Elysees, the Most Aggressive Rider designation, and yes, the Green Jersey. Should Cavendish win tomorrow, and should Hushovd end up more than a few places behind him, the Manxman could end up with the Sprinter's Jersey after all.

Should Cavendish manage to come away with the Maillot Vert tomorrow, he'd more than pay for Thornton's hefty investment -- but not if he falls short. Otherwise, our winners and losers, earners and owers are all but settled. I'll send out details in the coming days, as this is going to require an audit: if things indeed end up the way it seems they will, I need to be certain of my calculations.

Best,
Mike

Stage 18 Update

On a day characterized by perfection elsewhere (my dad was at the game!), Alberto Contador rode the Stage 18 time trial perfectly -- my assumption being that anything else would have left Cancellara with the victory, not the tiny climber.

Unlike Cancellara, Wiggins, Millar or other time trial specialists, Contador bounced on his pedals over the course's one categorized climb, and spent a good part of his blitz around picturesque Lake Annecy out of the saddle. It proved more effective than all but a few expected, with some pundits having wondered in writing whether pursuit star Wiggins, or Armstrong himself, might be able to use this Tour's longest time trial to close the gap to the Yellow Jersey; instead, Contador reached perfection; indeed, he achieved an imputed, historic and virtually perfect VO2 max of 99.5.

Behind Contador, the Schlecks, Armstrong, Kloden and Wiggins shuffled among the standings, some performances proving disappointing and a couple pleasantly surprising. Going into the penultimate stage Saturday, which finishes atop Mount(ster) Ventoux (which comes after tomorrow's up-and-down, but probably not decisive stage), we likely have our top three: Contador, Andy Schleck (who isn't likely to be outclimbed by anyone but Contador, and who would thus win the Young Rider's Jersey) and Armstrong, who would find himself in the very unfamiliar position of looking up at another rider on the podium -- unless brother Frank puts in an even more stellar climbing performance, in which case we'd have the all-time skinniest podium triumverate.

Three of four jerseys are likely locked up, then, and the fourth may well be in the Green bag, after Hushovd's gutsy mountain march yesterday. But there's always the prestigious stage win atop Ventoux to be decided, and of course the glorious Champs Elysees sprinters' fest. I'll thus not send out likely winnings; I'll wait until the standings are final and official -- and until I have a head start out of town, torches and pitchforks chasing after me.

Mike

Stages 17 & 18

Not long ago I wrote that I love the Tour de France. And I do. But I love this year's edition a little less than others.

Oh, it's no 1998, with the Festina Affair and an (allegedly) drug-addled Marco Pantani scorching the climbs, nor is it a '96, when "Mr. 60 Percent" Bjarne Riis sullied the reputation of Danes and aerodynamically bald men everywhere by surviving not only Jan Ullrich's challenge but nights of sludge-thick blood barely leaving his aorta. But 2009 is thus far not my favorite, offering nothing like the beauty of 1988, the touch-and-go unpredictability of 2003 or of course the thrilling suspense of 1989.

And I was feeling this way before fan and Fee-favorite Jens Voigt crashed horribly on the final descent of stage 17. After putting in a characteristically cojones-y effort to keep his team leaders at the front, his front wheel caught a divot in the otherwise smooth road and he went down, almost Beloki-like, though evidently not suffering injuries as severe as the Spaniard's in 2003. He'll be alright, but this Tour is a little less interesting for his departure.

Again, though, this edition has offered a lot of candy for the avid fan: the wind-shorn stages of the first week; Cancellara's opening time trial; Voeckler's solo victory; and, yes, Contador's climbing clinics. Soon I'll get over my dislike of the phenom, the best cyclist we've seen in a long time, remembering that I have no real evidence of drug use...but then I'll see him snap off that pistol-firing gesture as he crosses the line, and I'll revert to disdain.

But today offered another reason to put this year's Tour in the "Loveable" column: no, not the Schlecks' series of one-two punches up the final climb, which turned into Contador's rope-a-doping the brothers, but Thor Hushovd's picking up Cavendish's ill-conceived, ill-timed petulance one word at a time and shoving it back down his Manxian gullet. Watching the green-clad Norwegian jump off the front and, as if by force of will, determine that he would pick up every sprint point to be won today, was pure joy. Cavendish may still get the Green Jersey back, but it will take winning every flat sprint left in this Tour. My money's on Hushovd. (Actually, it's not; I wish it were.)

There was more to love yesterday and today: typically spectacular scenery over colorfully named cols; passing through three countries in one stage; VandeVelde giving it his all to ride his team-leader replacement Wiggins back into the race; and reading that today the Schlecks attacked "in Jens Voigt's honor." (Imagine someone attacking in your honor! Not singing, or writing poetry, or even running a marathon, but attacking. That's indeed an honor, and Voigt is deserving.) Oh -- and looking at my spreadsheet and finding that Frank Schleck's victory today won my brother 1.5% of the pot, and that Astarloza put our remote player Anetta in the black for the entire game.

So I'll wait to pass judgment. The Green Jersey competition alone makes this Tour worth following, as does the race for the podium. But the Yellow Jersey? That's sewn up, firmly on Contador's shoulders.

Stage 16 Update

Sorry folks. Couldn't resist.

What I should have started with is, "Given the rancor that has characterized this Tour, as described in my last post, and wanting to avoid having such rancor directed at me, I want to apologize for how this pool seems to be shaping up, and to announce that I will donate all of my winnings to the Foundation for Frustrated Father-Cyclists."*

Instead, I'll say this: I've held pools like this for five years; I've never, ever won anything; Contador struck me as the clear and absolute favorite months ago;

and it's over, folks.

I'll also offer this: I determined to get Contador in my stable of riders for the purposes of "emotional insurance." That is, I'm not a Contador fan. I believe that he's either doped in the past, or is doping now -- or both (and if he ever gets busted, I'll indeed donate those winnings, and to a worthy cause). I'd much rather see someone else win -- Sastre again, or a Schleck, or yes, Armstrong. But with the emotional insurance of owning him in our pool I figure I have some upside regardless of the outcome.

My God; if Ayn Rand had ever run a Tour de France pool, she'd have written that last paragraph.

The Tour isn't over; there's much more to be resolved. The Green Jersey competition could come down to the Champs Elysees; the Young Rider's race should fall to Andy Schleck, but the Annecy time trial could see Martin or Nibali take it back, leaving the slopes of the Ventoux as the final battleground. Polka-dots are still up for grabs too, as Pellizotti seems determined to hold on to the climbers' jersey -- but not necessarily capable of doing so.

But the Maillot Jaune? It would take a collapse of Bear Stearns-esque proportions to see it end on anyone's scrawny shoulders but Contador's. Should he lose a massive amount of time to a severe bonk, or a crash, or two flat tires, a broken chain and the Astana and Mavic support cars steering off the side of the Galibier, he's shown that he can take back as much time and more over a couple of mountain passes -- or even in a time trial.

Again, this Tour still has stories worth following: Has Wiggins transformed himself to such a degree under Vaughters' tutelage that he can finish on the Tour podium? Will Cancellara win the final time trial? Can Armstrong get himself onto the podium?

But as far as the winner goes -- and I sincerely hope I'm wrong, that we're still in for surprises over four potentially exciting, typically-decisive stages -- I think this Tour is over.

Mike

*The reason I'd write this is because by winning yesterday, Contador earned me not just 1.5% for a mountain stage victory, but NINE Maillot Jaune stages as well -- his first one, yesterday, and eight from unowned Nocentini. Oops.

Update: Stages 13 & 14

I thought this might be a feel-good Tour. With Armstrong coming back (ostensibly) to promote cancer awareness, and with guys like the Killer and the Cobra out of the Tour (not to mention the Chicken), this one had the potential to be all high-fives and double-cheek kisses.

This didn't come to pass.

Instead, this is the Tour of division, dissension and occasional derision, with teammates, countrymen and even old friends turning on each other.

From stage three it became clear that Armstrong and Contador would be frenemies, not compadres, and that Brunyeel was no Phil Jackson when it comes to managing competing egos.

Meanwhile, the riders have been angry at the organizers for route choices and the two-stage radio ban. Kloden's mad at Brunyeel for not turning the bipolar Astana leadership into what surely would be the most fractious triumverate since Octavian, Mark Antony and Lepidus. Tom Boonen's angry at the world, which keeps flinging crashes and punctures at him; Jens Voigt nearly went apoplectic at the Mavic wheelman for a slow change; Denis Menchov must be furious at himself for not resting on his Giro laurels; and everyone's angry with the French because they've had the nerve to win a couple of stages.

I'm waiting for all-time peloton nice guy Carlos Sastre to start swinging spindly punches at the next person who doubts his ability to repeat his victory.

We're even feeling it close to home, where word on the Montclair street is that Howard is angry with me for swiping Contador (totally justified), and Thornton's wife is frustrated that he spent so much on Cavendish (unverified, but justified).

How refreshing, then, was Cancellara's mid-race gesture of generosity towards David Millar, documented by Tom Carpenter a couple of days ago. Then yesterday we were treated to the sight of babyfaced stage victor Heinrich Haussler, he of dual citizenship and mutually inclusive national devotion, giving in to tears as he crossed the finish line, having powered away from Sylvain Chavanel and taking Jim Rusk's "Best Descender" title along the way.


I have no idea if Haussler's actually a nice guy, and am not suggesting he deserves his win any more than a typically self-aggrandizing winner...but I'll admit to feeling a catch in my throat when I watched him roll over the line.

Today's stage, though, swung us back to this Tour's polemics (a favorite word of European cyclists, for some reason), and now they're hotter than ever: Fan favorite and surely-deserving veteran George Hincapie broke away with 11 others. Before long their margin over the peloton, including Tour leader Nocentini, had grown to much more than the five-and-a-half minutes that separated Big George from the Yellow Jersey, and many observers assumed that the other teams, with little to gain from an acceleration, would soft-pedal the closing kilometers and allow George to spend at least one final day in jaune. Instead Garmin pushed the pace, and even Astana spent a bit of time at the front, Armstrong's allegiance to his compatriot and seven-time supporter notwithstanding. Sergei Ivanov powered away from the break for the win, and George followed sixteen seconds later, having led the group for much of the stage. An easy pace would likely have left Hincapie in yellow by a narrow margin, but instead Nocentini crossed with five seconds to spare, and will spend tomorrow in the Maillot Jaune. In an interview five minutes after the stage finished it was clear that Hincapie was very disappointed, and very angry.

Add to that some jostling between Hushovd and Cavendish in the closing meters of the field sprint, leaving Hushovd pissed at Columbia and Cavendish relegated to last place for the day, and we have a Tour brimming with invective and frustration, with the two American teams, Columbia and Garmin, ready to start shoving frame-pumps in each other's spokes.

Which sets us up for tomorrow: A mountaintop finish follows a number of smaller climbs. This route may begin to answer the Armstrong-or-Contador? question, may leave us with a new leader, and may even give the riders something to concern themselves with besides who-dissed-who and whether to wear earpieces or not.

And if it doesn't? I'll be angry.

Stage 12 Update

You're all coiled up like springs, right? Just ready to pop with excitement tomorrow?

Me, I'm like my son Declan after after the drive to Oregon, the one that starts early in the morning. Those of you who see Declan on a normal day, when he can exert some energy: imagine what he's like after being strapped into his car seat for 11 hours?

Oh -- and add the fact that we're not above feeding him sugar to mollify him during the final Corvalis-to-Portland stretch.

Yes, I feel like I've been cooped up, restrained by Astana's plodding gamesmanship, Columbia's disciplined dominance of the peloton and the effects of finish lines that come 70 kilometers after the Tourmalet. I'm ready to scream at the TV, lie on my couch in front of the TV, pedaling my feet in the air, hoping vicariously to go on the attack up an Hors Categorie climb (I've really done these things in the past); maybe I'll wear my Maillot Jaune to work -- when I finally arrive, after spending the morning in front of Versus -- or go to one of those street corner flag merchants and purchase the colors of tomorrow's winner to hang outside our house.

I'm saying I'm ready for a stage with some drama.

Though we might not get it. The buzz in the cycling punditry (yes, it exists) is that tomorrow we'll finally see a shakeup in the General Classification -- but I'm not convinced. As Jim suggested today, like him or not, Lance Armstrong's -- and PostaDiscAstana's -- cold, control-freak approach to the Tour doesn't make for exciting racing. And the route, while up-and-down all day, includes no field-shattering cols, and ends 30 kilometers after the final climb, likely enough for an avid chasing group to rein in any ambitious climbers. But I hope I'm wrong!

This isn't all to say that the race is without drama. The sprinters' competition remains tight and heated, with two racers of different strengths, styles and temperaments starting to hunt mid-race points as they chase and trade the Green Jersey. The young riders' race is drawing attention as Martin, heretofore a promising, if single-faceted rider suddenly seems capable of riding with the world's best climbers and flatlanders (hmmm...Schumacher, anyone?), as grimpeur heir-apparent Roman Kreuziger searches for opportunities to close the gap between them. And the polka-dot jersey competition got much more interesting today: After Pellizotti realized that the Tour de France is indeed much tougher than the Giro, and that he had a better shot at the climber's title than the overall podium, he sprinted for every point-earning summit, beating current jersey wearer Egoi Martinez by, er, a hair.

Chase as he tried, Pellizotti could only add to the second-place finish he achieved earlier in this Tour a third spot today, as Nicki Sorensen (which I think is also the name of a really hot cheerleader I had a crush on in high school -- same spelling) attacked his breakmates and stole this edition's second solo victory. The Dane looked great as he held off both the chasers and the pack, which seemed to suffer again from a serious case of ennui; as he's unowned, though, he earned nothing for any of our players.

The pots thus build. An owned rider tomorrow earns double winnings, while an owned rider who finally moves ahead of Nocentini will win something like 5% of the pot for his owner.

As if we needed more reason to be excited about tomorrow's stage! Let's hope it doesn't disappoint.

Stages 10 & 11

It’s tough to decide how I feel about the race-radio ban. When I first heard about the two-stage test-ban, I was all for it. Radios, I’d decided, lead to a lack of spontaneity and unpredictability. Besides, I don’t get a radio when I race! I have to watch the pack carefully, to notice who goes up the road, and perform on-the-bike calculus to decide whether to chase after them or not. (((Their speed – wind speed) x (1+ %grade of upcoming hill)/(Pack speed x (1+ Lactic acid percentage in my bloodstream)/# of glasses of wine I had the night before/temperature in celsius…))

I heard the arguments against the ban, and I wasn’t buying it: Safety? Start with the fact that there’s little that’s safe about what these guys do regardless of whether they have radios in their ears or not. And the people who’ve been barking most audibly about the ban, the directeurs sportifs, have to be one of the primary safety hazards on the road: You ever see those guys drive? They’re all retired racers, frustrated to be sitting behind the wheel of a car and not on a bike, and they drive accordingly. I don’t know if I’ve ever been as frightened as when riding with a former racer at the wheel – and we weren’t darting between racing cyclists over mountain roads shaped like EKG readouts. So if you’re worried about safety, maybe worry less about radio contact a little more about not driving your Skoda up the rear wheel of one of your riders.

Still, we do see breakaways slip away and stay there; witness this year’s win by Thomas Voeckler, probably my favorite stage thus far. And the riders must know something about the value of those earpieces; why else would they stage a subtle go-slow “strike” in stage 10, not the dragging near-stoppage we saw in Milan during the Giro this year, but also nothing close to the fierce racing we saw in earlier stages, particularly in the wind. A break of four, including three Frenchmen hoping to do their homeland proud on Bastille Day, tried to stay away but was reeled in quickly when the Columbia battering ram started flying towards the finish. Mark Cavendish nabbed his third stage of this Tour, thus moving within striking distance of Thor Hushovd, who donned the Maillot Vert after his uphill-finish win in Barcelona. Just six points separated the two after this stage, in what is the most interesting race-within-the race of this middle part of the Tour – though before long the races for white, polka-dots and of course yellow will become very interesting as well.

Stage eleven, while evidently harder-fought, ended the same way: with Cavendish crossing the line first. This identical outcome, though, came after a very different kind of finish, an uphill run into the town of Saint-Vargeau, a profile that looked better suited for Hushovd, Friere or Ballan. But the Columbians executed to perfection once again, launching the Manx Missile at just the right moment; the US’ Tyler Farrar came as close to winning as he’s been in this Tour but couldn’t close the last wheel-width to the too-powerful Cavendish, who took the Green Jersey back from Hushovd, who could only manage fifth. With another flat stage tomorrow, look for Cavendish to zip that jersey a little tighter.

The action in our game has thus been confined to Thornton, who now has 4% of the pot, thanks to Cavendish. Of course, whoever takes the yellow jersey from Nocentini will earn more than that for his owner, as the Italian has now been in the Maillot Jaune for four days, and isn’t likely to lose it until Friday, maybe even Monday or Tuesday. That’s when the other races-within-this race will get exciting once again.

Best,

Mike

Stage 9

Thank God for rest days! So say the Tour riders, though I say they’re nuts; if I were one of them I’d love the glamour of pro cycling so much that I’d hanker to jump on the saddle every day, even if I had just spent nine consecutive gritting my teeth in the bludgeoning heat, sideways rain – not to mention the Pyrenees themselves. I’d smile and thank my Directeur Sportif for the privilege!

Meanwhile, keeping up with these updates while holding down a day job, being a dad and trying to ride my bike here and there…now that’s cause for appreciation of a rest day. That and the fact that I’m on my last day in Laguna Beach, where I can’t seem to find Versus to save my life, and thus missed yesterday’s stage, just like Saturday’s.

Fortunately, it sounds like not much happened, nothing that shook up the General Classification. For all my waxing obsequious over the Tour organisers’ route-design innovation, it seems that one of this year’s nuances – placing some of the biggest, baddest mountains far before the stage finish lines – has led to yawn-worthy mountain stages. Not that it wasn’t exciting to see Sanchez surge ahead of his rivals in the break on Saturday, or to root for Pellizotti and Fedrigo to outlast the chasing pack some 70 km after the top of the Tourmalet, but what we’re all waiting for is the intra-Astana firefight – right? Whether Contador will attack again (he says he won’t), and whether Lance can match him (Andy Schleck says he can), and whether anyone else on the road can match them (I say…no, not Contador).

But first, some flat-ish stages, whereupon the Green Jersey battle royale will continue, Hushovd taking every non-sprinter’s opportunity to win the sprinter’s prize and Cavendish wondering why he didn’t stick with the track. Ah, the races-within-the-race – yet another Tour element I love.

Fedrigo’s pipping of Pellizotti yesterday earned Ajit 1.5% of the pot, as this was, technically a mountain stage, likely the first won by a Frenchman since Virenque. And with Nocentini still in yellow, the Maillot Jaune mini-pot moves forward another day, so that whoever takes it next will quickly gather up at least 4% -- probably more, as positions in the GC are unlikely to change in the next few days.

I’ll paste below the current winnings, FYI and FYE. Much, much more to come, of course.

Best,

Mike

Stages 6, 7 & 8

Friends,

In 1998 I rode for Stanford’s cycling team. In the Men’s “B” Road Race in the West Coast Championships, I had broken away with three other riders – one of whom was a teammate – with about 15 kilometers to go. We rode together, plenty of room in front of the pack (from what we could tell; we had neither radios nor blackboard-wielding, Burkina Faso-hailing motorcycle passenger-informers). My teammate in the break was younger – an undergrad – and it was understood that I, the better climber, would ride away on the final hill and take the race. But with about 10K left my teammate jumped, and the two rivals didn’t follow, and I couldn’t; if they managed to latch on to my wheel and I towed them back to my teammate, and then either one outmatched us at the finish, I’d be to blame. So I followed. I all but implored the rivals to ride harder; I wanted to win the race. But my teammate managed to stay away, keeping just enough distance over the final hill that he could then charge down to the finish line alone for the victory. I rode over the hill with one opponent – who then outsprinted me. I took third, and I was pissed.

Imagine if instead of riding for the Men’s “B” race in the West Coast Collegiate Championships I’d been racing for the Yellow Jersey in the Tour de France.

Such was the scenario in Friday’s Tour stage. Astana, evidently, had a plan – to control the race, to manage their rivals – but Alberto Contador took a flyer with a few klicks to ride on the road to Andorra and, to Lance Armstrong’s chagrin, took charge of this Tour. Of course, inherent in Armstrong’s post-race sentiment (and my analogy) is the suggestion that Armstrong could have stayed with Contador had he determined not to adhere to cycling’s unwritten strategic code. I, for one, am not certain that he could have.

Of course, Contador putting his stamp on this Tour and, my by estimation, all but ending the race was far from the only element of interest over the last three days. Work, play, family and decorum prohibit me from writing exhaustively on all three; I’ll summarize with these bullets instead:

• Thor Hushovd reminded us all that it takes far more than following a team-train at the end of flat stages to take the Green Jersey in Paris; he now wears Maillot Vert and earned another 1% for Tom, who’s slowly earning his substantial investment back, while Cancellara remained in the Yellow Jersey one more day (and thus earned another 1% for Tom).
• On Contador’s big day yesterday, an unowned rider – Rinadlo Nocentini – took the Maillot Jaune – and kept it today, so that when an owned rider takes it over (which one will) the owner will take a substantial return. Meanwhile, Brice Feilleu, also unwoned, won in Andorra, so that today’s rider earned double.
• Karen owns Sanchez, and as both yesterday and today were mountain stages, she wins 1.5% twice! She becomes the second player (after three year-old Suzanna) to earn a positive return on her investment.

Today was the first day I wasn’t able actually to watch a stage, as I’m in Laguna Beach for a family reunion and the hotel doesn’t have Versus(!). But I’ve found a bar in town with many channels – so hopefully that will change tomorrow – another mountain stage, but with the Tourmalet ending long before the stage finish, we won’t likely see much change in the standings. But we should see some exciting charges up the Tour’s most feared climb, as well as some frighteningly fearless descending.

Best,

Mike

Stages 4 & 5

Oh, how I love the Tour de France! Perhaps that’s not the sentiment of a true cycling fan; it’s like a basketball aficionado saying he enjoys the NBA playoffs more than the NCAA tournament. But I live for July and the Tour.

Here’s why: First, it’s the World Championships. Meaning it’s not, but it is. It’s the most prestigious race, bar none. Nationalists or cycling nerds will chirp that the Giro is a tougher race, or that Paris-Roubaix is the strongman’s race (which is true, and I love P-R), but the Tour rolls it all into one, and attracts the best talent.

Usually. Last year, not really. But even then, there’s drama, typically narrated by Phil & Paul. Again, it’s probably hip (or hipster, really) to prefer other commentators, or to watch sans commentary, just the whirring of the wheels and the spurring by the fans, but I’m a sucker for the P&P Jargon Factory. Phil’s right about half the time when identifying riders, but Paul usually corrects him; maybe they can’t stand each other, but you wouldn’t guess it. They’re colorful, and most of all they’re enthusiastic; Monday I worried that Phil might go into cardiac arrest when the peloton split apart in the wind. A few years ago I followed the Tour on TV in England, where Sean Yates was doing the commentary with another British guy, and I nearly fell asleep. I pray that the Versus duo sticks with this for years to come.

And then there’s the route: Every year it’s a blend of tradition and iconoclasm, tried-and-true and new-and-different. Sometimes the innovation goes awry, as with the time trial up Alpe d’Huez, during which Armstrong was spat on and was followed by a snipers mounted on a chase car – or even yesterday’s team time trial on narrow, serpentine roads. Most of the disruptions to tradition are inspired, though, and often yield the Tour’s best competition and its most vivid memories, as when LeMond won by 8 seconds in 1989 on a (gasp!) final day time trial. We can look forward to more of these memories, as this year the route pays tribute to the riders’ stomping grounds in the south of France and the Spanish coast, plunging tomorrow all the way to Barcelona from cyclists’ playground Girona, and then later on the Tour’s penultimate day, when the race will surely be decided atop Mt. Ventoux.

As for this idea that the other Grand Tours are equal to or better than the Tour de France…I’m not buying it. Not after visiting the Giro, which I found to be less organized, less attended and just less. For all of Italy’s cycling glory, history and beauty, even the queen stage of this year’s Giro felt bush-league compared to Tour stages I’ve visited. And when the Giro organisers decided to route the centenary version through some of Italy’s most historic sites, the backdrops were sometimes picturesque, but the parcours themselves were often dangerous or even unworthy of racing – so much so that one stage the riders rode slowly to protest the dangerous route.

I was already gushing after Monday’s day in the wind, but yesterday brought more excitement as Astana sped so quickly through the TTT that Armstrong very nearly stole the Maillot Jaune from Cancellara; the Swiss’ Spartacan efforts at the front of this flagging team’s formation, however, earned him a couple more days in yellow – and maybe a third, depending on how he fares in tomorrow’s uphill-finishing stage. One fifth of one second separates Armstrong and Cancellara, and many more follow closely behind. Astana’s victory put Andreas Kloden across the line first, so he’s our game’s “winner,” earning 1.5% of the pot for Howard.

Today saw crowd favorite Thomas Voeckler, the peloton’s Paul McCartney (still “the Cute One,” even after all these years), finally live down his 2005 campaign, when he nabbed the Yellow Jersey – and many a heart as well. I love his derrings-do, always hurling himself into breakaways, even at the beginning of a long mountain stage where he’s sure to get caught; had it not been for today’s victory we might have started calling him Sisyphus to Cancellara’s Spartacus, but he earned it with aplomb, shaking the break with five kilometers to go, holding off an atypically late-surging pack and even giving us a scare when he started celebrating with 200 meters to go, Cavendish and his troops massing on the not-too-distant horizon. Voeckler’s victory wins – wait for it – three year-old Suzanna Fee 1% of the pot (thus doubling her investment – put it in the college fund!), while another day with Cancellara in yellow brings Tom another 1%; one more and Tom will be in the black! (With Cancellara; he has a ways to go on his other investments.)

All is not well with our various riders, of course: Howard’s Boonen continues his path of penance, this time flatting twice and having to chase back without team support on a windy day; in the TTT Jim’s Evans had to drag his team along, but still fell further behind his General Classification rivals, and today Robert Gesink, owned by Jeff Jarvis after I advised him of the shrewd pick, crashed and dropped out with a fractured wrist. Sorry Jeff!

And to think: things haven’t really gotten interesting yet. Friday we hit the mountains, and the race really begins. But I’m having fun now!

Best,

Mike

P.S. Check out #6 in the standings at http://www.probikepool.com/tours/tour-de-france/pool-standing/global-classification.aspx. If I can move up five spots I win 800 euros! Yes, I’m a supreme bike-dork – but I’d appreciate your advice and/or positive vibes!

.

Tour Stage 3

Friends,

Yesterday I wrote that all was going according to plan. Then today’s stage delivered a surprise, an complete non sequitur, a moment predicted only by the few who were in on the joke and enjoyed by all those who got to watch – but definitely not those who watched from behind.

This – this is why I love bike racing: because not just suffering and fitness but physics and physiology, strategy, topography and meteorology all combine to shape the course of events. If this were a running race, the fittest racer would prevail nine times out of ten. But because these racers are borne on bicycles and travel much faster than on foot, and are thus subject to the vagaries of the elements and terrain, there’s far more at variance.

Don’t get me wrong: I love a time trial. Rider against the clock; man against man on the same course, with typically the same variables at play (though a shifting weather pattern can play differently as the day wears on). But in the pack, where being able to follow another rider’s rear end can mean the difference between insouciance and ignominy, and where a shift in the wind might mean a shift in the outcome, things are less predictable and often far more interesting.

Which is all why today’s stage, otherwise a yawner – four guys break away early, only to be gobbled up in the closing kilometers, after which Farrar and Hushovd make a good show of it but Cavendish emerges with his arms overhead – quickly became a fascinating study in tactics and physics: with about 25 kilometers to go, a bend in the road brought a shift in the wind, and Columbia-HTC seized on the opportunity. They rode to the front, grabbed the first five slots at the head of the peloton, left just enough room to maneuver behind and around one another – and little else for anyone caught inattentive. Riding with savvy, moxie and a lot of strength, the entire team rode at the front, forcing about 155 riders who weren’t paying enough attention into a panic as fissures formed among them, pried apart by Columbia’s efforts and a mistral that more experienced – or lucky – riders saw coming.

Joining Cavendish, Michael Rogers, Tony Martin and the Columbia-HTC team were Cancellara, his massive legs powering him into the break; Armstrong, seemingly innocently making use of his experience not to send a message but just to be in the right place at the right time – and few others. Contador, Evans, Sastre, Leipheimer, the Schlecks, the entire Garmin-Slipstream – all left out. Boonen too, and many of the sprinters. Hushovd was there, and gave Cav’ a good run about 200 meters from the line – but never really came close.

I have to say: I loved watching this stage. I ate it up. I watched with half an eye, mostly attending to work, but as I heard Phil & Paul’s volume edge up I paid a bit more attention, and then, when that first gap formed – just ten meters, but widening fast – I keyed in, fascinated, and watched it unfold.

By the time they’re in Paris, or probably by the second day in the Pyrenees, this stage won’t turn out to have mattered much. Any time that the climbers and GC contenders lost can likely be gained back on those who gained it –Martin, Armstrong, Rogers – within a couple of mountain stages. But it made for some great drama. Watching panic set in over the peloton as they wound their way back and forth across the road, like the surprised snake I saw while riding in Tuscany – like Phil Liggett said of himself, I had to catch my breath when it was over.

The impact on our game isn’t much either: Tom takes home another 1% as, like Spartacus maintaining a purchase on his shield, Cancellara keeps hold of the Yellow Jersey, and Thornton rides Cavendish’s win number two to another 1% himself. These guys are a ways from paying off their investment – but every day gets them closer!

Tomorrow may bring more surprises. Perhaps Columbia’s efforts today will cost them the team time trial win tomorrow, or maybe the Hinault-LeMond dynamic on Astana will prove so severe that one of its protagonists will crack. Or maybe things will play out just as the book says they will.

Regardless, today was a lot of fun.

Best,
Mike

Tour Stages 1 & 2

[This time of year I run a Tour de France fantasy game -- the ultimate in dorkiness, I know -- so blog entries during July will mostly be the updates I post to those who play.]

Bonjour Amis,

It’s all going according to plan. Cancellara wins the opening time trial through the picturesque and serpentine streets of Monaco: check. Contador continues his run of improbable results, finishing second to the Swiss uber-time trialist and beating such specialists as Wiggins, Evans and Millar: check. Armstrong raises hopes with an early best-time, disappoints his legions of fans as nine rivals dash delusions of a spectacular return to the Tour, and then leaves all with the sense that he may well yet be dangerous: check. And Columbia-HTC launches Cavendish to a win the first sprint of this year’s Tour: check.

A few small surprises, near-catastrophes, and items of note: Tony Martin, not previously a household name (even in the Fee household) posted the first Armstrong-beating time in the opening time trial, and Columbia-HTC thus asserted itself as the rival to Astana as the team of this year’s Tour. Tom Boonen, reportedly struggling with a stomach virus, made an ignominious return to the ranks with a 114^th-place finish in the TT – and then missed the last right-hander and thus the final sprint in today’s stage. And speaking of ignominy, Frank Schleck has officially found himself relegated to Second Schleck on his team, having to chase back solo after crashing, receiving no support as Saxo Bank rode in defense of Cancellara’s Yellow Jersey, and evidently in ignorance of the brother who was the family’s first next great Tour hope.

In our game, betting big so far is the winning strategy, as top “investors” Tom and Thornton have earned the first two days’ winnings: Tom with a total of 3.5% of our pot ($222.50!) for a TT win and two days in the Maillot Jaune; Thornton gets 1% for Cavendish’s (first) win (so far) today. Considering that there are flat-ish stages to come, and that Cancellara’s team could withstand an Astana/Garmin/Columbia onslaught in the Team Time Trial Tuesday (Yea! The Team Time Trial’s back!), these guys may keep earning money for awhile.

More to come! I hope you’re enjoying this Tour de France – and your summer.

Best,

Mike